What do voters expect from populist parties?

Many voters turn towards right-wing populist parties when they are hit by economic shocks, which threaten their material well-being and their social status. Examples are trade shocks, which put their job at risk, or austerity programs, which reduce the public support that they receive to deal with these economic transformations. Although the empirical relationship between economic risk and populist voting is well established, the mechanism is still unclear. Right-wing populist parties generally propose less rather than more public spending, which seemingly runs counter to the interest of vulnerable voters because fiscal cutbacks further increase rather than decrease inequality. This paper explains this behavior with the expectations of voters how parties distribute public spending across society rather than how much they will spend overall. Our original surveys in France, Germany and the UK show that respondents correctly expect lower rather than higher public spending from right-wing populist parties. However, the electorate has strongly diverging expectations about the spending priorities of these parties and how much the voters themselves will personally benefit from the policies that these parties pursue. Respondents who fear a decline in their social status expect that they benefit most from spending by right-wing populist parties, while respondents who do well economically expect that they benefit least from them. The same voters hold the opposite expectations for mainstream, non-populist parties. Fiscal austerity magnifies this divide. Voters, especially those with status anxiety, become more supportive of policies that redistribute public resources towards them at the expense of outgroups when the government cuts public spending.