Unfulfilled Expectations and Unexpected Help: How Initial Risks and Subsequent Welfare Benefits Jointly Shape Political Trust

Authors – Miroslav Nemcok, Arno Van Hootegem, Staffan Kumlin.

Abstract :

Modern welfare states use economic transfers and human services to protect their citizens from the adversities of modern life. When individuals experience economic hardship and become recipients of benefits, they are more likely to support redistribution policies that serve their self-interest. However, individuals vary in their likelihood of experiencing unfortunate life events and in their perceptions of their susceptibility to personal difficulties. Thus, accessing welfare benefits can be a long-awaited relief for those who are aware of their vulnerability, while for others, it may be a response to an unexpected and disruptive life event.

Hence, we address the question: Do welfare benefit recipients become more supportive of the welfare state, even if their reliance on social protection is due to unforeseen circumstances? This research investigates the relationship between prior risks and subsequent benefit recipiency, using fixed-effects models on panel data from three-wave panel surveys from Norway (2014, 2015, 2017) and Germany (2015, 2016, 2017). The surveys allow matching initial risk perceptions to subsequent benefit recipiency in four key areas: unemployment, sickness, disability, and social assistance. What we call unfulfilled expectations – people who had felt risk some time ago, but it later did not materialize – are associated with reduced political trust in Norway. Moreover, unexpected help – where a person had not foreseen risk that nonetheless materialized later, along with a benefit – increases trust in Germany. These findings are particularly noteworthy given the stability of people’s attitudes and the use of fixed-effects models, which provide a more robust empirical assessment.

Since welfare benefit recipients are found to have a comparable level of trust as the rest of the population, the Norwegian and German welfare states are rather effective in fulfilling their protective function when targeting those who perceive a need for assistance. However, if individuals who anticipate risks are not provided with help, as we found in Norway, their trust in the political system may decline.

Considering the moderating role of expectations about future need on the link between welfare experience and political trust, empirical research in public policy should expand the scope of its inquiries to include the attitudes carried by citizens before their interactions with the welfare state. Their risk perceptions constitute an important determinant of their response to the social support provided by the welfare structures.