Language courses as springboards or traps? The labour market transition of Ukrainian refugees in Germany

More than 1.2 million Ukrainians are currently seeking protection in Germany due to Russia’s war of aggression. Compared with refugees from other countries, Ukrainians benefit from a relatively liberal protection regime under the European Temporary Protection Directive. In Germany, they have been granted immediate labour market access alongside elective early investments in their human capital through integration and language courses. To assess the effectiveness of this “language-first” approach, this paper exploits variation in language course attendance to examine its relation with the labour market integration of Ukrainian refugees, emphasizing the impact of early-stage human capital investments following their arrival.
Previous research on refugees from other origins and countries suggests mixed outcomes. On the one hand, early participation in structured language and integration courses may delay refugees’ entry into the labour market by locking them into prolonged training programmes and raising their reservation wages. On the other hand, timely participation in such courses significantly improves refugees’ subsequent employment opportunities, particularly by better using their existing skills and enhancing employment quality, thereby strengthening their long-term integration prospects.
Through fixed-effects panel regression models, this paper analyses both short- and medium-term effects of language course participation using variation in the duration of language course attendance. It distinguishes between various indicators of labour market integration: initial access to employment and subsequent employment quality, focusing specifically on employment type and mismatch. Furthermore, the analysis considers the timing and intensity of language training, differentiating between completed and incomplete language courses.
The analysis uses data from the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP survey and the BiB/FReDA survey on Ukrainian refugees, which constitute comprehensive six-wave panel data documenting early integration trajectories in Germany until 3 years after arrival with the last measurement in summer 2025. The data allow us to examine whether initial human capital investments act as a springboard for successful integration or as a trap, inadvertently delaying refugees’ entry into the labour market. The study also highlights heterogeneous effects based on gender, presence of children in the household, and refugees’ pre-existing skills. The paper contributes by analysing the role of integration measures for sustainable labour market integration under conditions of a liberal protection regime. It shows whether and for whom targeted and timely human capital investments appear to be most effective in promoting sustainable labour market outcomes.