Just Energy Transition or Just Inequality? The Politics of Transition in South African Coal Communities

The accelerated green transition in South Africa shaped by international finance commitments and national decarbonisation goals risks deepening regional and socio-economic inequalities in coal-mining communities if mitigation is poorly designed. International partners mobilised an initial US$8.5 billion under the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) to support South Africa’s transition, but disbursement, project design, and local reach have been uneven and contested (Climate Commission, 2023; Columbia Energy Policy Center, 2024). Coal remains the backbone of South Africa’s electricity system, a generation accounting for 74% of electricity generation, and 21% of mining sector employment, conditions that make the timing and governance of plant retirements especially consequential (IEA, 2023; Pulitzer Center, 2024). At the same time, coal-related air pollution contributes substantially to the national burden of disease: recent assessments attribute tens of thousands of PM2.5 to premature deaths annually in South Africa, with substantial concentrations in coal basins (Health Effects Institute, 2024). This paper uses a mixed-methods design to identify political and distributional consequences. I combine administrative employment and municipal finance records (2015–2023) for coal-basin municipalities with nationally representative survey modules on inequality perceptions and political behaviour (N ≈ 28,000), and a comparative case study of Mpumalanga (largest coal producing province in Africa) featuring interviews with labour leaders, municipal officials, and JETP project documentation. Identification exploits staggered decommissioning dates and difference-in-differences models with municipality fixed effects to separate transition effects from broader economic shocks. Results indicate that an earlier-than-expected decommissioning shock is associated with average municipal revenue declines of roughly 6–9% (p These findings show the green transition is not distribution-neutral: without transparent governance, local revenue-sharing, demand-led reskilling, wage support during closures, and participatory planning, transition policies risk amplifying inequality and political grievances that can undermine both social justice and decarbonisation objectives. Policymakers must therefore pair macro finance with place-based micro interventions and disaggregated monitoring to ensure coal-dependent communities share in the benefits of a low-carbon future.